[关键词]
[摘要]
本研究以2013年长江三角洲(下称“长三角”)城市群扩容为例,采用2004~2017年地级市面板数据,利用合成控制法实证分析了城市群扩容能否带动区域经济增长这一问题。实证结果表明:一方面,在短期内长三角城市群的扩容促进了原位地区的进一步发展,抑制了新进地区的发展;另一方面,长三角城市群的扩容对新进地区发展呈现倒U型负向冲击,随着新进地区积极融入城市群,城市群的周边地区发展出现较大的负向冲击。结合研究结果,本研究认为城市群的发展要从整体布局,明确各城市的发展方式和产业结构;城市群周边城市的发展要警惕来自城市群发展的回流效应,以减小城市群发展带来的负向冲击。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
The study took the urban agglomeration expansion in Yangtze River Delta in 2003 as the example and used the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2017 to empirically analyze the problem that whether the expansion of urban agglomeration can drive regional economic growth by using the synthetic control method. The results show that, in the short term, this expansion can boost the development of the original regions and hinder the development of new members; negative effects on surrounding regions increased when the new members actively integrated into the urban agglomeration. Based on above findings, relevant suggestions can be given for further developing urban agglomeration.
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